Fragile Net Zero Goals Risk 2°C Warming

Natural carbon sinks like forests, oceans, and soils currently absorb about half of human-made carbon emissions.

While these systems are critical to stabilizing global temperatures, experts warn that relying too heavily on them without cutting fossil fuel use could derail climate goals.

During UN climate talks in Azerbaijan, scientists criticized “vague” net zero targets, cautioning that they could allow global temperatures to exceed the critical 2°C threshold despite global efforts to curb emissions.

Oxford scientist Myles Allen, a pioneer in net zero research, explained that natural carbon sinks cannot simultaneously address both past and future emissions.

He highlighted Russia’s use of forests to offset rising fossil fuel consumption as an example of flawed strategies undermining long-term climate goals.

To tackle the issue, researchers emphasized the need for “geological net zero”—capturing and permanently storing every tonne of CO2 from fossil fuels underground.

At present, this method handles less than 0.1% of emissions, falling far short of the 100% goal for 2050.

Experts also warned that unclear or misleading policies could give a false impression that the world is on track to limit warming to 1.5°C while in reality heading toward a more dangerous rise beyond 2°C.

With 2024 projected to set records for carbon emissions and global temperatures, scientists stress the urgency of implementing clear, robust, and effective climate strategies to avert a worsening crisis.